Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 15.15 per cent in December 2025 following a comprehensive methodological review by the National Bureau of Statistics, signalling a substantial easing of price pressures compared with both the preceding month and the corresponding period in 2024.
The latest Consumer Price Index report, released by the NBS on its website Thursday, revealed that the CPI rose to 131.2 points in December 2025 from 130.5 points in November, reflecting a slower pace of increase in average consumer prices across the economy.
On a year-on-year basis, inflation declined from 17.33 per cent in November 2025 and registered significantly lower than the 34.80 per cent recorded in December 2024, representing a notable deceleration in headline inflation over the twelve-month period and marking one of the steepest annual declines in recent years.
The report stated that “the Consumer Price Index rose to 131.2 in December 2025, up by 0.7 points from the previous month (130.5). The December 2025 year-on-year Headline inflation rate stood at 15.15 per cent relative to the November 2025 headline inflation rate (17.33 per cent).”
The bureau added that “on a year-on-year basis, the December Headline inflation rate was 19.65 per cent lower than the rate recorded in December 2024 (34.80 per cent). This shows that the Headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in December 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., December 2024), though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100.”
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation stood at 0.54 per cent in December 2025, down from 1.22 per cent in November. According to the bureau, this indicated that “the rate of increase in the average price level was lower in December 2025 than in November 2025,” reflecting easing short-term inflationary pressures.
However, the December figures represent a significant revision from earlier NBS reports. In December 2025, the bureau had reported that the headline inflation rate for November stood at 14.45 per cent year-on-year, compared with 16.05 per cent recorded in October 2025. Following the methodology review, the NBS now puts the November inflation rate at 17.33 per cent, substantially higher than the previously reported figure.
The NBS explained that the December inflation figures were influenced by a fundamental change in methodology following the CPI rebasing exercise. The year-on-year headline inflation rate and other sub-indices were computed using a twelve-month index reference period, with the average CPI for 2024 set to 100, rather than a single-month reference period.
The bureau noted that using a single-month base would have produced “an artificial spike in the December 2025 year-on-year inflation rate,” driven by base effects rather than underlying price movements. It added that the adjustment aligns with international best practice as outlined in the International Monetary Fund Consumer Price Index Manual and the Economic Community of West African States Harmonised CPI Manual.
The methodological shift comes after the NBS warned stakeholders during a virtual engagement convened with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group that it would “normalise” Nigeria’s inflation data for December 2025 over a projected spike in the Consumer Price Index.
Statistician General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of NBS, Adeyemi Adeniran, had explained that the projected December spike stemmed from the rebasing of the CPI, which adopted 2024 as the new base year after a fifteen-year gap from the previous 2009 base.
“Following the rebasing exercise and the methodology adopted for December 2025, a significant artificial spike in the inflation rate is expected, as some analysts have already projected. This spike arises from the base effect, with December 2024 equated to 100 following the rebasing,” Adeniran stated during the engagement.
He emphasised that base effects are a common feature of statistical practice, particularly in index-based measurements, adding that “when such effects occur, especially when they are artificial and arithmetic rather than reflective of structural changes in the economy, it is essential to clearly communicate and explain them to users.”
Adeniran said transparency and accountability guided the bureau’s decision to address the issue proactively rather than allow potentially misleading figures to circulate without context.
Despite the moderation in monthly inflation, the twelve-month average inflation rate remained elevated. The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months ending December 2025 over the previous twelve-month period stood at 23.01 per cent, highlighting the cumulative impact of inflation over the year and the persistent price pressures that characterised much of 2025.
A breakdown of the headline figure showed that food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to inflation, accounting for 6.06 percentage points of the year-on-year rate. Restaurants and accommodation services contributed 1.96 percentage points, transport accounted for 1.62 percentage points, while housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels contributed 1.28 percentage points.
Education services, health, clothing and footwear, information and communication, and other divisions also added to overall inflation, though at lower levels.
Both urban and rural inflation eased sharply on a year-on-year basis. Urban inflation stood at 14.85 per cent year-on-year in December 2025, down from 37.29 per cent in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, however, urban inflation edged up slightly to 0.99 per cent from 0.95 per cent in November. The twelve-month average urban inflation rate stood at 23.46 per cent.
Rural inflation fell to 14.56 per cent year-on-year in December 2025 from 32.47 per cent a year earlier. Unlike urban areas, rural inflation recorded a month-on-month decline of 0.55 per cent, compared with a 1.88 per cent increase in November. The corresponding twelve-month average rural inflation rate was 21.93 per cent.
Food inflation, which has been a major pressure point for Nigerian households and a significant driver of overall price increases throughout 2024 and early 2025, recorded one of the steepest improvements. The food inflation rate dropped to 10.84 per cent year-on-year in December 2025 from 39.84 per cent in December 2024, representing a dramatic turnaround in food price dynamics.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation declined by 0.36 per cent, reversing the 1.13 per cent increase recorded in November. The NBS attributed the decline to falling average prices of items such as tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, vegetables, plantain, beans, wheat grain, ground pepper and fresh onions. The average annual food inflation rate for the twelve months ending December 2025 stood at 22.00 per cent.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices and is often considered a more reliable indicator of underlying inflation trends, also moderated. The all items less farm produce and energy index showed that core inflation eased to 18.63 per cent year-on-year in December 2025 from 29.28 per cent in December 2024.
Month-on-month, core inflation slowed to 0.58 per cent from 1.28 per cent in November, while the twelve-month average core inflation rate stood at 23.49 per cent.
Other sub-indices showed mixed movements. Farm produce prices declined by 0.41 per cent on a month-on-month basis in December, compared with a 0.77 per cent increase in November. Energy prices rose by 2.74 per cent in December, higher than the 1.08 per cent increase recorded a month earlier. Services inflation slowed sharply to 0.15 per cent from 1.78 per cent, while goods inflation eased slightly to 0.64 per cent from 0.73 per cent.
State-level data revealed wide disparities in inflation outcomes across Nigeria’s thirty-six states and the Federal Capital Territory. On a year-on-year basis, Abia recorded the highest all-items inflation rate at 19.03 per cent, followed by Ogun at 18.80 per cent and Katsina at 18.66 per cent. Sokoto recorded the slowest rise at 8.61 per cent, while Plateau and Kaduna posted 9.05 per cent and 10.38 per cent respectively.
On a month-on-month basis, Cross River recorded the highest increase in all items inflation at 3.11 per cent, followed by Abia at 2.63 per cent and Delta at 2.53 per cent. Ondo recorded the sharpest decline at minus 3.74 per cent, while Gombe and Jigawa also posted notable month-on-month decreases.
Food inflation also varied widely across states. Yobe recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation rate at 15.25 per cent, followed by Ogun at 14.12 per cent and the Federal Capital Territory at 13.24 per cent. Akwa Ibom, Sokoto and Plateau recorded the slowest increases. On a month-on-month basis, Imo, Nasarawa and Yobe recorded the highest increases in food prices, while Plateau, Rivers and Zamfara recorded declines.
The NBS cautioned against direct interstate comparisons, noting that consumption patterns and CPI weights differ across states. According to the bureau, “the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state, making interstate comparisons of consumption baskets inadvisable and potentially misleading.”
The rebasing exercise represents the first comprehensive update to Nigeria’s inflation measurement framework since 2009. Over the intervening fifteen years, the Nigerian economy has undergone substantial structural changes, including shifts in consumption patterns, the emergence of new product categories, changes in the retail landscape, and significant variations in household spending priorities.
The 2009 base year had become increasingly outdated, potentially distorting the accuracy of inflation measurements and making it difficult for policymakers, businesses, and households to make informed decisions based on price data. The rebasing aligns Nigeria’s statistical methodology with international best practices and provides a more accurate reflection of contemporary economic realities.
The sharp decline in inflation from the elevated levels recorded throughout much of 2024 and early 2025 will likely influence monetary policy decisions by the Central Bank of Nigeria. The apex bank has maintained a relatively tight monetary stance in recent quarters, raising the monetary policy rate multiple times in response to persistent inflationary pressures.
