A critical disarmament model emerging in Ethiopia is casting a harsh light on Nigeria’s failing strategy for ending insurgencies, revealing how peace accords that leave weapons in militant hands guarantee renewed violence.
Across Africa, where insurgencies fueled by governance failures, inequality, and resource conflicts undermine stability, the pathway to lasting peace remains elusive. However, a recent development in Ethiopia’s Amhara region offers a tangible, if fragile, blueprint. There, a significant number of Fano insurgents and their commanders formally surrendered to the national army and crucially handed over all their weapons. This act of disarmament allows demobilization and reintegration to begin, creating a foundation for a credible peace.
In stark contrast, peace dialogues in Nigeria’s northwest have become synonymous with broken promises and cyclical bloodshed. Security analysts note a fundamentally dangerous pattern: negotiations with bandit and terrorist groups consistently conclude without the mandatory surrender of sophisticated weaponry.
“In Nigeria, whenever peace deals are reached, terrorists are allowed to return to the forests with their weapons,” observes commentator Hamidu Alhaji on X. This failure to disarm perpetuates a state of violent instability.
The grim results of this approach are documented in community after community. According to HumAngle, terrorists in Zamfara State have violently violated peace accords. In the Yarmatankari community, armed men led by a known bandit leader stormed the village declaring, “The peace negotiation deal has expired… No more peace for you!” before attacking residents.
The scale of these shaky agreements is vast. A November 2025 Vanguard report noted that at least 20 of Katsina State’s 34 Local Government Areas have entered into peace accords with bandits. Yet, residents live with profound doubt, their fears validated by fresh attacks in communities supposedly under truce. Security analyst Zagazola Makama underscores that dialogues without enforced disarmament are a critical flaw.
The Choice for a Durable Peace
True peace the cornerstone of development and dignified living requires more than temporary ceasefires. For Nigeria to achieve a sustainable “peace surge,” its strategy must evolve.
The emerging lesson from comparative analysis is clear: a durable peace demands insurgents hand over their weapons as a non-negotiable first step. This must be followed by structured rehabilitation and reintegration programs. Without this tangible commitment to demilitarization, Nigeria’s accords will remain nothing more than tactical pauses in an endless war, eroding public trust and perpetuating the very instability they are designed to end.
The Ethiopian example demonstrates that while immensely challenging, genuine disarmament is the indispensable price of peace. Nigeria’s current model, by refusing to exact that price, is paying for failure with the lives of its citizens.
