Tokyo has moved ahead of its international partners. Japan will begin releasing strategic petroleum reserves as early as Monday, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced on Wednesday, in a unilateral step that signals the depth of concern in the world’s fourth-largest economy over a rapidly deteriorating energy supply outlook tied to the widening conflict in the Middle East.
The decision is notable not only for its urgency but for its timing. Japan has been engaged in discussions with the Group of Seven major economies and the International Energy Agency on a possible coordinated, multilateral release of oil reserves designed to stabilise global crude prices. That process, standard practice under the IEA framework, typically involves formal consultations and a collective decision among member states before any country acts. Tokyo has chosen not to wait.
“Without waiting for a formal decision on coordinated international stock releases with the IEA, Japan has decided to take the lead in easing supply and demand in the international energy market by releasing strategic reserves as early as the 16th of this month,” Takaichi told reporters in Tokyo on Wednesday.
At the centre of Japan’s anxiety is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula through which roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes daily. With hostilities in the Middle East intensifying, a growing number of tankers have been unable to transit the strait, and Takaichi confirmed the direct impact on Japan’s supply lines.
“Crude oil imports to Japan are expected to decrease significantly starting late this month,” she said, noting that many tankers are unable to pass through the crucial passage.
Japan’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil is among the highest of any major industrialised nation. The country imports approximately 90 per cent of its crude oil from the Middle East, a structural reality that has shaped Japanese energy policy since the oil shocks of the 1970s. The 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian revolution both delivered severe economic blows to Japan, experiences that led Tokyo to build one of the most substantial strategic petroleum reserve systems among IEA member states.
“Given Japan’s exceptionally high dependence on the Middle East and as we will be severely impacted, we plan to utilise Japan’s strategic petroleum reserves,” Takaichi said.
Japan currently maintains strategic reserves equivalent to approximately 90 days of consumption, in line with the IEA’s minimum requirement for member nations. Those reserves are held across a combination of government-controlled storage facilities and obligations imposed on private oil importers and refiners. The release announced by Takaichi draws from that national buffer.
Beyond the geopolitical dimension, Takaichi’s announcement had a direct domestic audience. The Japanese government has committed to keeping the average retail price of gasoline at around 170 yen per litre, equivalent to approximately 1.07 US dollars, which would place it slightly below last year’s average of 178 yen per litre. Fuel price stability carries significant political weight in Japan, where public sensitivity to energy costs is high and where the government has previously deployed fuel subsidy mechanisms to shield consumers from international price spikes.
Japan has operated a fuel subsidy programme since early 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent global energy prices surging. That programme, which provided direct payments to oil wholesalers to suppress retail prices, cost the Japanese government trillions of yen over its lifespan and was wound down and reactivated multiple times as market conditions shifted. The current reserve release appears to be the government’s instrument of choice for managing the latest spike, though Takaichi did not rule out additional measures.
Japan is a founding member of the International Energy Agency, established in 1974 in direct response to the Arab oil embargo. The IEA’s collective action mechanism, through which member states coordinate emergency oil releases, has been invoked several times in recent decades, most notably in 2011 following disruptions caused by the Libyan civil war, and again in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a global supply shock.
In the 2022 response, the IEA authorised the largest coordinated release in its history, totalling 60 million barrels in the first tranche, with Japan contributing a proportional share. The fact that Tokyo is now acting ahead of any formal IEA decision suggests that the Japanese government calculates the domestic supply situation is deteriorating faster than the multilateral process can respond. It also reflects a broader anxiety about the unpredictability of the current Middle East conflict and its potential to escalate in ways that could further restrict tanker movements.
Takaichi was careful to frame the unilateral move as complementary to, not a departure from, the multilateral framework. Tokyo would still liaise with the G7 and the IEA “to ensure that under no circumstances will there be disruptions to the supply of petroleum products such as gasoline,” she said.
Japan’s decision is likely to be watched closely by other major oil-importing nations, particularly those in Asia that share Tokyo’s dependence on Middle Eastern crude. South Korea, India, and China are all significant importers of Gulf oil, and any sustained closure or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would affect all of them. Unlike Japan, China and India are not IEA members and therefore do not operate within the collective release framework, meaning their responses to a supply shock would be entirely independent and potentially destabilising to global markets.
For the IEA and the G7, Japan’s pre-emptive move creates a degree of pressure. If Tokyo’s reserve release helps stabilise prices before a coordinated response is formalised, it could be read as a validation of going it alone. If prices continue rising despite the Japanese action, it could accelerate the IEA’s own decision-making timeline.
The Middle East conflict, whose exact trajectory remains uncertain as of this report, has already added a risk premium to global crude prices. Brent crude had been trading at elevated levels in recent weeks, with oil markets reacting to each development in the region with heightened sensitivity. Japan, with its limited domestic energy production and its deep structural exposure to Persian Gulf supply routes, has concluded that it cannot afford to wait for consensus.
The release, expected to begin on Monday the 16th, is among the most significant emergency petroleum decisions Japan has taken outside of a fully coordinated IEA action. Its effectiveness will depend not only on the volume released but on whether the broader supply disruption proves temporary or deepens into a prolonged regional crisis.
