The All Progressives Congress (APC) has reinforced its dominance in Nigeria’s political scene with a resounding victory in the August 16, 2025, bye-elections. According to ThisDay newspaper, the APC secured 12 out of 16 contested seats, while the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) won two, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) each secured one seat. The victory highlights the APC’s continued grip on the electoral process in Nigeria.
In the state assembly race in Kano, APC candidate Garba Gwarmai clinched victory with 31,472 votes, defeating NNPP candidate Yusuf Maigado, who received 27,931 votes (Premium Times, 2025).
This result exemplifies the APC’s dominance in key northern states. Similarly, in Kogi’s Okura constituency, APC candidate Hassan Shado won with 55,073 votes, leaving the PDP candidate far behind with just 1,038 votes (Nairaland, 2025).
Meanwhile, APGA secured victories in Anambra South senatorial district and Onitsha North 1 state constituency, as reported by Vanguard newspaper (2025), offering a regional resistance to APC’s widespread success.
Despite the celebrations within APC circles, the election results have sparked mixed reactions across the country. Opposition parties, including the PDP and Labour Party, have accused the APC of vote-buying, intimidation, and election rigging.
These allegations, while not substantiated by official bodies, echo the ongoing concerns about electoral integrity in Nigeria.
While the APC’s victories in the bye-elections are significant, voter participation in the elections was notably low. Historical data from the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD West Africa) reveals that only 28.63% of eligible voters participated in the 2023 general elections (CDD West Africa, 2023).
This trend continued in off-cycle elections such as the 2024 Edo gubernatorial election, where voter turnout was estimated between 21% and 24% by Yiaga Africa (Yiaga Africa, 2024). The issue of low voter turnout is linked to a broader disillusionment with the electoral process, fueled by Nigeria’s ongoing socio-economic struggles.
As the country faces persistent insecurity and economic hardship, many Nigerians feel disconnected from the political process, questioning the efficacy of their votes. According to Situation Room Nigeria (2024), this apathy is one of the key challenges facing Nigeria’s democratic system.
In Abuja, where opinions are often divided, residents shared their thoughts on what these bye-elections might mean for the 2027 presidential elections.
Igbetar Oyiman, a resident from Benue State, expressed his strong loyalty to the APC, saying, “The love we have for APC is greater than the love for ourselves. If you go to my state, they will vote for any party except APC, but in the coming elections, I believe the APC will win again.”
This sentiment reflects the strong regional support APC has cultivated in northern and central Nigeria, contributing to President Bola Tinubu’s victory in 2023, as indicated by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) results.
However, not all residents share this optimism. A concerned resident from Adamawa State pointed to insecurity as a major issue that could undermine the APC’s chances in 2027. “I don’t think the APC will win in 2027 because people are crying over insecurity. Every day, people are being killed, and nothing is being done about it. It is only the rich who are benefiting from this government, not the poor,” he stated. This frustration mirrors the findings of the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect (AP News, 2025), which reported that at least 2,266 people were killed by bandits or insurgents in the first half of 2025 alone.
Further, the Council on Foreign Relations (2025) Nigeria Security Tracker highlighted the ongoing violence across the country, particularly in the northeast and northwest regions, where insecurity remains a major concern. Despite a 37% decrease in terrorist attacks in 2024, fatalities have continued to rise, with no substantial improvement in security on the ground.
In response, Segun, another resident of Abuja, speculated that an opposition resurgence might be possible in 2027. “If they don’t rig the elections, I believe the PDP will win, especially if former President Goodluck Jonathan runs again,” he said. This view reflects the sentiments of many opposition supporters who believe that electoral irregularities, including vote rigging and violence, were prominent in the 2023 elections, as noted by Freedom House (2024).
In contrast, Hassan Abdulahi expressed a more positive outlook, pointing to the government’s infrastructure improvements as a sign of progress. “If APC continues to improve roads and infrastructure, I think they will still win in 2027,” he remarked.
Indeed, the APC government has emphasized its focus on infrastructure, with recent data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2025) indicating Nigeria’s GDP growth accelerated to 3.4% in 2024, driven by hydrocarbon output and services. Projections for 2025 also point to steady growth, further bolstering the APC’s claim of progress.
Abdurafatai Yusuf, another resident in Abuja, expressed confidence in the APC’s ability to secure a third consecutive presidential victory in 2027. “The APC has already taken over most of the states in Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory. By 2027, they will have done enough to win again,” he said.
His optimism ties into ongoing government efforts to stabilize the economy, with the World Bank (2025) projecting Nigeria’s GDP growth at 3.4% for 2025.
However, the World Food Programme (WFP, 2025) has warned that 33.1 million Nigerians will face food insecurity in 2025, exacerbating the economic challenges many Nigerians face. Additionally, the World Bank notes that despite economic reforms, over 33% of Nigeria’s population remains in poverty, and more efforts are needed to improve security and reduce economic hardship.
While the APC’s victories in the bye-elections can be seen as an endorsement of the government’s policies, the reactions from Abuja residents reflect broader national concerns about insecurity, poverty, and governance.
Analysts like those from Yiaga Africa and the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) have called for electoral reforms ahead of the 2027 elections, emphasizing the need to address voter apathy and improve electoral transparency (Yiaga Africa, 2024; CDD West Africa, 2023).
