The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its economic growth outlook for Nigeria, signalling cautious optimism about the country’s medium-term recovery.
In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) update released on Monday, the IMF now projects Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 4.4 percent in 2026.
This represents a 0.2 percentage-point increase from the 4.2 percent forecast issued in October 2025.The improved outlook, outlined in the January 2026 WEO report, reflects early gains from Nigeria’s ongoing policy reforms.
According to the IMF, efforts aimed at strengthening fiscal coordination, improving macroeconomic stability, and advancing structural adjustments are beginning to yield measurable results, creating a more supportive environment for sustained growth.
The Fund noted that while the upgrade is modest, it is significant. It points to rising confidence that the reforms currently underway will translate into stronger economic performance over the medium term. Near-term projections were largely left unchanged, indicating that the optimism is focused mainly on 2026 and beyond as recent policy measures gain fuller effect.
For 2025, Nigeria’s growth forecast was revised upward from 4.0 percent to 4.1 percent, while the 2026 projection was adjusted from 4.3 percent to 4.4 percent.Similar incremental upgrades were observed in other major African economies. South Africa’s growth forecast, for instance, was adjusted to 1.3 percent for 2025 and 1.4 percent for 2026.
Analysts say Nigeria’s revised outlook is part of a broader, gradual recovery trend across the continent rather than an isolated development. The IMF’s assessment suggests that Nigeria is benefiting from this regional upswing, with its domestic reform agenda providing an added boost.
The World Economic Outlook remains a key reference point for global investors and policymakers, and the latest upward revision is likely to be seen as a positive signal of confidence in Nigeria’s current economic trajectory.
