Nigeria’s electricity sector is grappling with widespread outages that have left millions of households and businesses in the dark, a crisis the Nigerian Independent System Operator attributes directly to severe constraints in gas supply to thermal power plants, which dominate the country’s generation capacity.
The announcement came on Friday from the system operator, which oversees grid stability and energy dispatch, highlighting how fuel shortages have caused a sustained decline in electricity production across the national grid. In a statement posted on its official X handle and titled “Declining Power Output Attributable to Generation Shortfalls and Gas Supply Limitations,” NISO reported that the average available generation has fallen to around 4,300 megawatts, significantly below the nation’s installed capacity.
The disruptions trace back to early February, when scheduled maintenance on critical gas infrastructure by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and Seplat Energy temporarily halted deliveries to several thermal plants, sparking a nationwide drop in power output. These constraints have lingered, exacerbating the shortfall and forcing prolonged blackouts in many areas.
NISO’s statement detailed that the reduced supply stems from acute gas limitations impacting thermal generating stations, which constitute the majority of Nigeria’s electricity production. “We hereby notify the general public and all market participants that the current average available generation of approximately 4,300MW is primarily due to inadequate gas supply to thermal generating stations,” the operator declared.
It further noted that since thermal plants form the backbone of the national grid, any interruption in gas flow inevitably leads to diminished generation and lower energy distribution to companies. “Given that thermal plants account for the dominant share of Nigeria’s generation mix, any disruption or limitation in gas supply directly affects available generation capacity and overall grid output,” the statement elaborated.
To underscore the severity, NISO shared operational figures showing that thermal plants need an estimated 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet of gas daily for peak performance. Yet, as of February 23, 2026, the actual supply was only about 692.00 million standard cubic feet per day, equating to less than 43 percent of requirements.
“The available gas supply represents less than 43 per cent of the required volume, resulting in constrained generation output. The current low generation level is fundamentally driven by inadequate gas supply to thermal generating units, leading to reduced energy allocation to the DisCos,” NISO explained.
This deficit means over half the daily gas volume for thermal operations is missing, drastically curbing nationwide electricity dispatch. With demand outstripping supply, NISO has resorted to load shedding to preserve grid integrity. “When total system generation drops significantly, the Independent System Operator must implement load shedding across the system, while dispatching available energy in line with the NERC MYTO allocation percentages across all distribution networks to maintain grid stability and prevent system disturbances,” the statement continued.
The operator conveyed apologies for the disruptions to consumers and stakeholders, pledging collaboration to normalize supply. “While we regret the inconvenience this situation may cause electricity consumers and affected market participants, we will continue to work closely with relevant stakeholders to ensure full energy allocation as soon as gas supply improves and generation capacity is restored,” NISO stated.
Reports indicate that Nigeria’s power infrastructure relies heavily on gas-fired thermal plants, which produce over 70 percent of grid electricity, with hydropower making up the remainder. This dependency renders the system vulnerable to upstream issues like production hurdles, pipeline sabotage, maintenance halts, pricing conflicts, or payment delays in the electricity chain. Liquidity problems persist, with generation companies often citing poor remittances from distribution firms as barriers to settling gas supplier debts.
Recent reforms, including the separation of the system operator from the Transmission Company of Nigeria to enhance oversight and transparency, have not yet addressed core generation ties to fuel availability. National peak demand surpasses 20,000 megawatts, but the 4,300-megawatt average highlights a massive gap for Africa’s most populous country.
A lasting resolution hinges on grid reforms alongside secure, viable gas arrangements for thermal facilities. Without these, outages and rationing may endure for consumers nationwide.
This latest episode fits into a decades-long pattern of energy woes in Nigeria, where unreliable power has stymied economic growth and daily life since the era of the National Electric Power Authority, established in 1972 to consolidate fragmented utilities. By the late 1990s, NEPA’s inefficiencies—marked by corruption, poor maintenance, and capacity shortfalls—earned it the moniker “Never Expect Power Always,” as blackouts became routine amid a population boom and industrial stagnation.
The transition to the Power Holding Company of Nigeria in 2005 aimed to prepare for privatization, but issues persisted, with generation hovering below 4,000 megawatts despite vast hydrocarbon reserves. The 2013 privatization unbundled the sector into generation, transmission, and distribution entities, yet gas supply bottlenecks emerged as a primary culprit, tied to upstream debts, vandalism, and forex shortages affecting imports.
Grid collapses have exceeded 200 since 2010, often triggered by gas shortages at thermal plants, which rely on Nigeria’s seventh-largest global reserves but suffer from underinvestment and pipeline disruptions. In 2013, for instance, shortages led to widespread rationing, while 2022 saw multiple failures from low gas and hydro levels. The World Bank estimates annual losses of 29 billion dollars from unstable supply, forcing reliance on costly generators that emit pollutants and strain budgets.
Installed capacity stands at about 13,500 megawatts, but actual output rarely tops 5,000, with thermal plants—over 75 percent of the mix—frequently idled by fuel constraints. Early 2026 alone witnessed grid collapses, including a full blackout on January 23 dropping to zero megawatts, blamed on gas and transmission faults. Experts cite funding gaps, leadership crises, technical deficits, and macroeconomic instability as entrenched factors, with calls for diversification into renewables to reduce gas vulnerability.
As of January 2026, plant availability was just 36 percent, with average dispatch at 4,421 megawatts, underscoring persistent underutilization. Until holistic solutions address these layers—from upstream gas reforms to grid modernization—the cycle of darkness risks continuing.
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