Nigeria’s crude oil production fell to 1.599 million barrels per day in November 2025, marking a significant year-on-year decline of 5.9 percent from 1.698 million bpd in the same month of 2024. The latest data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reveals persistent production challenges that continue to undermine the nation’s economic objectives despite recent infrastructure improvements.
The November production figure, which includes 1.436 million bopd of crude oil and 163,049 bopd of condensate, represents a concerning step backward for Africa’s largest oil producer. The decline underscores fundamental operational and structural challenges that have prevented Nigeria from realising its ambitious production targets throughout 2025, despite achieving 100 percent pipeline availability for the first time in decades.
Nigeria’s inability to sustain consistent production gains has profound implications for government revenue. According to data compiled by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the country suffered production shortfalls of approximately 93.74 million barrels during the first eight months of 2025 alone—representing a deficit of $6.848 billion in oil revenue based on an average crude price of $73.06 per barrel.
The shortfall against budget targets has been severe. The 2025 national budget projected crude oil production averaging 2.06 million barrels per day, yet actual output averaged only 1.673 million bpd during the first eight months—a gap of 390,000 barrels daily. If this trend continues, industry analysts project an additional loss of approximately $3.56 billion in the remaining months of 2025.
The consecutive quarterly shortfalls compound the challenge. The first quarter of 2025 saw production miss its target by 35.01 million barrels, equivalent to $2.625 billion in lost revenue. The second quarter maintained the troubling pattern, with shortfalls of 34.67 million barrels valued at $2.592 billion.
A paradoxical situation has emerged in Nigeria’s oil sector. Despite achieving 100 percent pipeline availability in June 2025—a milestone that officials once described as “previously unthinkable”—production levels remain stubbornly below potential. The NNPC Limited group chief executive officer, Bayo Ojulari, captured this contradiction when addressing industry stakeholders in July: “For years, whenever we gathered at this event, we lamented the insecurity around our pipeline network. But as of last month, we averaged 1.35 million barrels per day in crude production, and with condensates, it came to about 1.6 million bpd. So now that the pipelines are available, the question becomes: where is the production?”
Five major crude evacuation pipelines—the Trans-Niger Pipeline, Oando Brass Pipeline, Trans Forcados Pipeline, Trans Escravos Pipeline, and Trans Ramos Pipeline—achieved full operational status between May and June 2025, removing what analysts previously considered the primary bottleneck to increased production. Yet despite this critical infrastructure achievement, output has plateaued.
The gap between pipeline availability and actual production reveals systemic vulnerabilities beyond infrastructure. Industry experts and regulatory officials have identified multiple factors constraining output, including underinvestment by oil operators, deferred major projects, and the continued exodus of international oil companies from Nigeria’s onshore assets.
Shell, ExxonMobil, Eni, and TotalEnergies have all scaled back or exited onshore operations in recent years, transferring assets to Nigerian indigenous producers who often lack the capital and technical capacity to maintain production at previous levels. The upstream project pipeline has grown thin, with few new major developments coming online to offset natural production declines from ageing fields.
Financial constraints represent a critical impediment. According to energy sector analysts, Nigeria currently requires approximately $25 billion annually in upstream investment to stabilise production at the 2 million barrel-per-day target—a figure the industry has struggled to attract given persistent security concerns and policy uncertainties surrounding the Petroleum Industry Act implementation.
Although major pipeline infrastructure has achieved unprecedented security, crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism continue to exact a heavy economic toll. Nigeria loses an estimated 400,000 barrels daily to oil theft and vandalism, translating to over $10 billion in annual revenue losses. During 2024 and the first half of 2025, this drain prevented Nigeria from meeting its OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd on most occasions.
In November, Nigeria’s average production of 96 percent of its OPEC quota demonstrates continued underperformance. The organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries secondary source data indicated crude oil production—excluding condensates—fell further to 1.486 million bpd in November, representing just 99 percent of the 1.5 million bpd quota.
The economic impact of theft and vandalism extends beyond immediate production losses. Between 2010 and 2012, a total of 2,787 line breaks on pipelines belonging to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) resulted in petroleum product losses worth approximately 12.53 billion naira. Research conducted in 2025 found that rising crude losses, repair costs, and theft have demonstrable long-term negative impacts on Nigeria’s gross domestic product.
The persistence of oil theft, combined with governance uncertainties and policy inconsistencies, has eroded investor confidence in Nigeria’s oil sector. Sectoral investment in oil and gas fell below $500 million in the first half of 2023, a dramatic decline from peaks exceeding $22 billion in 2014. International oil companies have responded by reducing capital expenditure and accelerating divestments.
This capital flight has consequences. Without sustained investment in new field development, enhanced recovery operations, and infrastructure maintenance, production will continue to deteriorate despite improving security conditions. Indigenous operators who have acquired divested assets require financing frameworks, timely government approvals, and fiscal incentives to maintain production—support mechanisms that remain inconsistently provided.
The NUPRC has established an ambitious production target of 2.5 million barrels per day in the coming years, projecting that improved security and regulatory clarity would unlock dormant production capacity. However, current trajectory suggests such targets remain aspirational. Analysts from SBM Intelligence describe the recent production recovery as “fragile and incremental rather than transformational,” noting that “structural security and governance failures continue to impose a hard ceiling on production.”
The commission’s November production report disclosed that the lowest combined crude oil and condensate output reached 1.54 million bopd, whilst peak production touched 1.79 million bopd—demonstrating significant daily volatility that undermines revenue predictability and hampers budget planning.
Nigeria’s oil sector faces a critical juncture. The nation possesses proven reserves of 37.28 billion barrels of crude oil and condensate as of January 2025—the second largest in Africa—yet ranks only around eleventh globally in proven reserves. Despite this strong reserve base, production continues to disappoint due to what industry experts identify as governance issues, policy inconsistency, and weak institutional enforcement.
