Asylum applications lodged in the European Union fell by nearly one-fifth last year, marking the second consecutive annual decline, the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) reported on Tuesday. However, the agency cautioned that escalating turmoil inside Iran could rapidly reverse the trend and generate refugee movements of a scale not seen in decades.
In its annual overview of asylum trends, the EUAA documented approximately 822,000 applications for international protection submitted in the EU plus Switzerland and Norway during 2025. That figure represents a 19 percent decrease compared to the previous year, following an 11 percent drop in 2024. The decline was driven largely by fewer applications from Syrian, Bangladeshi, and Turkish nationals, the agency said.
Yet the report, which was finalised before the outbreak of open hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran, painted a stark picture of potential instability on the EU’s eastern periphery. The agency identified Iran as a “potential flashpoint” in an already volatile global environment, citing mass protests against the clerical leadership and last year’s Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
“With a population of approximately 90 million, even partial destabilisation could generate refugee movements of an unprecedented magnitude,” the EUAA stated.
The agency noted that displacement of just 10 percent of Iran’s population would rival the largest refugee flows of recent decades. It cautioned, however, that the scenario remained “highly speculative” at this stage. Iran currently hosts an estimated 2.5 million refugees, predominantly Afghan nationals, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, making it one of the world’s largest refugee-hosting countries.
Despite the country’s strategic importance and internal unrest, Iranian asylum seekers have not featured prominently in European statistics to date. Iranian nationals lodged only 8,000 applications in EU+ countries during 2025, ranking them as the 31st largest group of claimants, the EUAA said.
The prospect of sudden, large-scale displacement from Iran has already prompted discussion among European policy makers. Diplomatic sources confirmed that the issue was raised during an extraordinary meeting of EU foreign ministers held on Sunday. The matter is also scheduled for discussion when the bloc’s 27 interior ministers convene in Brussels on Thursday.
The European Commission on Monday signalled that it was stepping up preparedness measures. A spokesperson said the commission was “enhancing preparedness through closer monitoring” of the situation and reinforcing cooperation with relevant United Nations agencies and partner countries. The aim, according to the statement, is to ensure that member states and EU institutions are positioned to respond rapidly should the security situation deteriorate further.
When asked for an updated assessment as hostilities in the Middle East expanded, the EUAA declined to offer projections. “The situation remains very fluid, and it would be irresponsible to make any hypothetical or predictive statement,” the agency said.
Afghan nationals remained the largest group seeking protection in Europe during 2025, filing 117,000 applications, a 33 percent increase from the previous year. Venezuelans were the second largest group with 91,000 claims, followed by Syrians, whose applications fell significantly as the civil war there entered a less active phase.
The EUAA’s report stressed that the overall drop in numbers should be interpreted with caution, given the highly volatile international context and the number of potential flashpoints near European borders. It noted that Iran’s internal dynamics, combined with its role as a regional power, meant the country could not be ignored in migration planning.
“The decline in applications should therefore be interpreted with caution,” the agency wrote, underscoring that stability in the Middle East and beyond remained fragile and that Europe’s migration landscape could shift rapidly in response to events beyond its borders.
