As Nigeria grapples with a stark World Bank warning of 139 million citizens teetering on the edge of poverty by year’s end, President Bola Tinubu’s administration has fired back with tales of tangible triumphs. Over ₦297 billion pumped into cash transfers for vulnerable families, school kitchens buzzing with fresh meals to keep children learning, and loans unlocking dreams for small traders—these are the pillars of a renewed hope, officials insist. Yet, in the dusty alleys of Abuja, whispers from the streets paint a far grimmer picture: where is the money landing, and who truly feels the lift?
The clash of narratives erupted earlier this month when the World Bank’s latest report cast a long shadow over Nigeria’s economic reforms. Despite subsidy cuts on fuel and a unified naira, the document forecast a poverty surge that could engulf nearly two-thirds of the population. Enter Sunday Dare, the President’s Special Adviser on New Media, who took to the digital barricades with a spirited defense. “Economic reforms translate into improved living standards,” Dare declared on X, urging Nigerians to look beyond the headlines to the “transparent, data-driven programmes” reshaping lives.
At the heart of this push sits the conditional cash transfers, a flagship under the National Social Investment Programmes (NSIP). Since 2023, a whopping ₦297 billion has flowed to about 15 million households, vetted through a digital National Social Register to weed out ghosts and ensure every kobo counts. Families enrolled snag monthly stipends, but only if the kids show up for school—a clever tether to brighter futures. Dare hails it as a “shift toward targeted, verifiable interventions that build trust,” a far cry from the leaky buckets of old.
Then there’s the Home-Grown School Feeding Programme, revived and turbocharged to nourish 10 million pupils while propping up local farmers. Nutritious plates sourced from nearby fields not only battle hunger but also shield small agro-businesses from inflation’s bite. In pilot zones, officials report staple prices dipping by 15 to 30 per cent, thanks to subsidies on grains and fertilizers, plus tie-ups with mechanization outfits to refill national food reserves.
“This protects jobs, encourages small enterprise, and keeps children in school,” Dare emphasized, linking it to broader food security drives that could spawn a million new farm gigs by 2026.
Small businesses, the lifeblood of Nigeria’s informal economy, get their slice too. The Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP) doles out collateral-free micro-loans—such as TraderMoni dishing up to ₦350,000 for petty traders, especially women and youth. Layer on the National Credit Guarantee Company’s risk-sharing with banks, and suddenly credit flows easier for market mammies and budding entrepreneurs. The aim? Half a million fresh outfits sprouting yearly, fueling jobs and self-reliance. Toss in the Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme, channeling micro-infrastructure to 8,809 wards for grassroots hustles, and you’ve got a blueprint for an “inclusive economy,” as Tinubu himself put it during a Bauchi summit.
“These gains—400 percent non-oil revenue rise, 4.23 percent GDP growth—promote productivity over consumption,” the President affirmed, acknowledging the reform pangs like soaring inflation but betting on long-term balm.
Media spotlights have amplified these strides with vivid yarns. The Nation Newspaper’s October 9 dispatch, “How Reforms Are Bringing Down Poverty, by Presidency,” framed the cash blitz as a “bold” antidote to poverty’s core, spotlighting digital checks that slash waste and school feeds that slash meal costs in test beds. Punch Newspapers countered the Bank’s gloom in “Presidency Rejects World Bank’s Poverty Report,” threading Dare’s X salvos with beneficiary beats: Lagos market women scaling via TraderMoni, rural tots tucking into subsidised suppers that buoy local traders. AllAfrica’s “Federal Government Disburses ₦297bn to 15m Families, Targets More Jobs, Cheaper Food” zoomed wide, from urban slums to village outposts, praising GEEP’s trader-farmer fusion and NCGC’s low-rate lifelines. “The reforms are necessary. The direction is right. The foundation for a fairer Nigeria is being laid,” Dare assured, eyeing mid-2026 rollouts to blanket all at-risk groups and skills hubs for lasting poverty plunges.
Yet, peel back the gloss, and cracks emerge—implementation snags in far-flung spots, as critics murmur in article sidebars. To gauge the real pulse, Fairview Africa hit Abuja’s bustling streets, cornering everyday folk on whether Tinubu’s welfare web is weaving relief or just hot air. The verdict? A chorus of frustration from those who need it most.
Ayomide, a young trader nursing empty shelves in her neighborhood, didn’t mince words. “I have not seen anyone benefiting from this programme the feeding of children in school, the loan for traders. Look at my community: there are lots of shops that are already closed down because they don’t have money to stock their shops. Meaning that the government has not really done anything in our community. So the government should try harder so this money can reach us because we are the ones that need these loans the most.”
Mr. Jude, father to school-age kids in both public and private setups, echoed the dismay with a weary shake of the head. “This programme is not working at all. The school feeding programme is not working in Nigeria at all. I have children in both public and private schools, but I have not seen anything of such. Also, the loan that the government said they are giving to the poor—we the poor, we are not seeing it. And we are the ones who need it.”
Mrs. Comfort, scanning the horizon for any sign of promised aid, summed up the sentiment in a sigh. “All the things government promises us, we have not seen anything. We only hear with our ears, but we don’t receive.”
These voices from the ground underscore a yawning gap: grand designs in Abuja’s corridors versus the grind on the pavement.
While the reforms have undoubtedly been positioned as a bold step towards poverty alleviation, the reality is more complicated. The ₦297 billion earmarked for cash transfers may look substantial on paper, but it falls short when considering the country’s vast population of over 200 million. The challenge lies not only in ensuring the money reaches those in need but also in overcoming logistical, infrastructural, and bureaucratic bottlenecks that plague the system.
One of the critical barriers to success is the lack of on-the-ground infrastructure in rural areas. While some areas report improvements in staple food prices and small business growth, others remain stuck in poverty, waiting for the promised aid. For example, Ayomide’s concerns reflect a larger issue of uneven distribution—small businesses in certain areas continue to struggle, unable to access the loans that are supposed to help them survive.
Additionally, the conditionality tied to the cash transfers, requiring children to attend school to receive stipends, is a well-intentioned strategy but may not be enough to significantly alter the financial landscape for many families. For some, the decision to send children to school may conflict with the immediate need to put food on the table, leaving families torn between education and survival.
Looking at the success stories of other developing countries can provide valuable insights for Nigeria’s approach. In India, for example, the government’s cash transfer programs have seen more success due to a combination of digital payments and better integration with local governments. Furthermore, Indonesia’s school feeding programs have seen greater success by ensuring that local food suppliers are better integrated into the supply chain.
In contrast, Nigeria’s lack of a robust social safety net for the broader population exacerbates the problem. While ₦297 billion is a significant step forward, it represents a fraction of what is required to address the depth of Nigeria’s poverty crisis.
Given the current implementation issues, it remains to be seen whether the reforms will be able to reach the broader population effectively. The government’s promise of further expansion by mid-2026 should be taken with caution, as these programs need more than just funding they require consistent monitoring, better coordination across federal and state lines, and a genuine commitment to addressing the systemic barriers that prevent real change.
