Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir el-Rufai has delivered a stark forecast on President Bola Tinubu’s prospects in the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. Speaking on Channels Television, el-Rufai asserted that Tinubu is unlikely to secure a second term, predicting he will finish third and fail to advance to any runoff.
El-Rufai, who once actively campaigned for Tinubu, drew on both personal experience and political analysis to back his claims. “I was one of Bola Tinubu’s biggest campaigners, but I couldn’t deliver my state to him,” he explained. He highlighted Tinubu’s inability to win Kaduna State despite having the backing of the incumbent governor, emphasising that such realities dispel theoretical optimism about Tinubu’s chances.
El-Rufai further challenged the commonly held belief that power, money, and institutional control guarantee electoral victory. He pointed to the 2015 election, where then-President Goodluck Jonathan, despite controlling the police, military, and electoral commission resources, lost to Muhammadu Buhari. “President Tinubu, invite ex-President Goodluck Jonathan for a chat, and ask him if he didn’t have all this in 2015, and we got him out,” el-Rufai remarked. “The case is even worse now.”
He dismissed claims of Tinubu’s political invincibility, advising Nigerians to reflect deeply before the next election cycle. “If you want to engage in self-delusion, you are free to do so. But the worst-case scenario is no outright winner in the first round. We may go for a runoff, and Bola Tinubu will not be on the ballot for the runoff, because he will, at best, be third,” el-Rufai concluded.
