The World Health Organization (WHO) says the development and widespread deployment of next-generation influenza vaccines could prevent up to 18 billion cases of influenza and save 6.2 million lives globally between 2025 and 2050.
The projection is contained in WHO’s Full Value of Improved Influenza Vaccines Assessment (FVIVA), alongside a companion publication in the journal Vaccine. The assessment examines the potential health, economic and policy impacts of improved influenza vaccines, while also identifying barriers to global access and uptake.
According to WHO, seasonal influenza currently causes about one billion infections each year, with between three and five million cases developing into severe illness. Annual deaths linked to respiratory complications range from 290,000 to 650,000 worldwide.
Although existing seasonal influenza vaccines reduce disease burden, their effectiveness varies by season, vaccine type and population group. Protection is typically limited to a single influenza season, requiring biannual strain selection meetings coordinated through WHO’s Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System.
The assessment also highlights persistent inequities in vaccine access. While 143 countries report availability of seasonal influenza vaccines, most doses are used in upper-middle- and high-income countries, leaving lower-income populations at greater risk.
WHO estimates that next-generation or universal influenza vaccines capable of providing broader and longer-lasting protection could significantly transform global health outcomes if widely adopted.
“This assessment makes clear the potential benefits that improved influenza vaccines could offer across different settings,” said Dr. Philipp Lambach, WHO technical lead for the project. “It provides all those working on future influenza vaccine investments, policy development and research priorities a common set of evidence to catalyse vaccine development.”
The FVIVA was developed in collaboration with international experts focused on improved, next-generation and universal influenza vaccines. As of February 2026, WHO’s Influenza Vaccines R&D Roadmap indicates that 46 next-generation influenza vaccine candidates, using a range of technology platforms, are currently in clinical development.
The Full Value of Vaccine Assessment framework is intended to support evidence-informed dialogue among governments, researchers, manufacturers and global health partners by outlining the broader value and development considerations associated with improved vaccines.
