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A deepening political crisis threatens Nigeria’s opposition landscape as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) refuses to recognise the newly elected leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), whilst a wave of governorship defections to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) raises fresh concerns about Nigeria’s descent toward one-party dominance.
The flashpoint came on 22 December when INEC, in a letter signed by its Secretary, Dr Rose Oriaran-Anthony, declined to recognise or upload the national officers elected at the PDP’s November convention in Ibadan. The commission cited pending court cases and subsisting federal high court judgments as obstacles to official recognition. The decision has ignited fierce debate about whether electoral and judicial processes are being weaponised against the opposition.
The controversy centres on the legitimacy of the 15-16 November convention held in Ibadan, Oyo State, which produced Kabiru Tanimu Turaki (SAN) as National Chairman and a new National Working Committee (NWC). The convention enjoyed the visible backing of prominent PDP governors including Seyi Makinde of Oyo and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi, who attended and facilitated the proceedings.
What makes INEC’s position particularly contentious is that the electoral commission itself monitored and observed the Ibadan convention. The commission sent officials to observe the proceedings, received communications from the Turaki-led NWC, and even supervised party primaries in Ekiti and Osun states using the new leadership’s communication channels. Yet, in its December letter, INEC claimed it could not formally recognise the officers because of unresolved legal disputes.
The PDP’s National Publicity Secretary, Ini Ememobong, challenged INEC’s contradictory stance. “The primaries in Ekiti and Osun were duly monitored by INEC, with communication emanating from the Turaki-led NWC,” he stated, noting the inconsistency. The party has since filed appeals against the court judgments upon which INEC bases its rejection, and applications for stays of execution have been submitted to the Court of Appeal. Ememobong maintained that “there is no faction in the PDP, as all the legitimate organs and the administrative structure of the party are under the control of Kabiru Tanimu Turaki, SAN.”
The Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA), a prominent pro-democracy organisation, described INEC’s decision as part of a coordinated plot to cripple the opposition ahead of the 2027 presidential election. The group alleged that the presidency, INEC, and Federal Capital Territory Minister Nyesom Wike are working in concert to weaken the PDP and ensure that it cannot field a credible presidential candidate to challenge President Bola Tinubu.
HURIWA’s National Coordinator, Emmanuel Onwubiko, asserted that INEC had monitored the Ibadan convention “which produced the Tanimu Turaki-led National Executive Committee,” making its later rejection “absolutely ridiculous” and evidence of a “well-arranged dangerous plot.” The organisation called for investigations into allegations by Governor Makinde that Wike is executing a plot to destroy the PDP from within, thereby providing what Makinde termed a “soft landing” for Tinubu in 2027.
HURIWA further accused INEC of allowing itself to be used by the presidency, APC, and FCT Minister to undermine political opposition in the country. The group cautioned President Tinubu to cease what it termed an “active agenda to cripple constructive and independent opposition political parties.”
Central to HURIWA’s allegations is the role of Nyesom Wike, who continues to claim PDP membership despite backing a rival faction led by Senator Samuel Anyanwu as Acting National Secretary. The tension reflects a deeper split within the PDP, with Wike’s faction insisting they hold legitimate authority. Anyanwu, representing the Wike-backed faction, praised INEC’s decision as “a welcome development” and commendation for “respecting the law and the court judgment.”
However, the Court of Appeal has already validated Turaki’s leadership in certain respects, and multiple PDP organs—the Board of Trustees, Governors’ Forum, state chairmen, National Assembly caucuses, and stakeholder groups—have acknowledged Turaki’s authority within the past month. The selective legal positions being defended by rival factions reflect the party’s fractured state.
Compounding the opposition’s woes is an accelerating wave of high-profile defections to the ruling APC. In 2025 alone, five major opposition governors abandoned the PDP for the APC: Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Douye Diri (Bayelsa), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), and Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau). Taraba State Governor Kefas Agbu is expected to formally defect in January 2026. Additionally, numerous National Assembly members have joined the APC, giving the ruling party more than a two-thirds majority in both chambers of parliament.
The scale of the exodus has revived concerns about Nigeria drifting toward one-party dominance. Yet Nasarawa State Governor Abdullahi Sule has rejected such fears, arguing they are unfounded and historically inaccurate. “We are not drifting into a one-party state. Today, we have about 28 governors in one party. Around 2013 and 2014, the PDP had about 29 governors, and Nigeria did not become a one-party state,” Sule told journalists at the weekend.
Sule stressed that “one-party system is not good for democracy, and I do not believe any party, including the APC, wants to pursue that.” He attributed the defections to President Tinubu’s reform agenda and policies rather than coercion, emphasising that defectors were “inspired” by the administration’s achievements in exchange rate unification, fuel subsidy removal, and power sector reforms.
The PDP’s leadership crisis occurs against a backdrop of broader opposition fragmentation. The Social Democratic Party (SDP), whilst sympathetic to the goal of removing Tinubu from office in 2027, has notably rejected calls to align with “questionable characters” in opposition coalition arrangements.
Prince Adewole Adebayo, the SDP’s 2023 presidential candidate, disclosed that the party conducted rigorous vetting of potential coalition partners and rejected many. Adebayo stated: “We are talking with the coalition, and we are trying to find a common purpose. This common purpose must have meaning in the life of ordinary Nigerians. The fact that I don’t like Tinubu does not make me accept those things that I don’t like him for from others.”
He revealed that his team interviewed coalition aspirants and “told many of them to go away. You can’t say you want to rescue Nigeria when you’re a fraud,” suggesting that opposition credibility remains a sticking point. The SDP leader also alluded to politicians facing corruption allegations who are attempting to position themselves as alternatives to Tinubu, warning that “criminality and opportunism have no place in genuine reform politics.”
Adebayo emphasised that any viable coalition must be grounded in shared ideology and accountability. According to him, “politicians seeking alliance must first acknowledge their role in the country’s current problems before presenting themselves as agents of change.” The SDP leader maintained that the party would rather remain out of power than participate in arrangements that compromise its principles or betray public trust.
The unfolding drama has profound implications for Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election. With the APC controlling 28 of 36 states and commanding overwhelming legislative majorities, the ruling party begins from a position of extraordinary strength. Conversely, the opposition faces a fractured landscape defined by the PDP’s internal wars, defections of key figures, and the SDP’s selective approach to coalition-building.
Civil society organisations and democracy advocates warn that the cumulative effect of INEC’s position on the PDP, coupled with judicial delays and the wave of defections, risks narrowing the space for genuine political competition. Yet defenders of INEC’s stance argue the commission has no choice but to await judicial clarity before recognising contested party leadership.
The resolution of the PDP’s leadership question and whether INEC ultimately recognises the Turaki or Anyanwu factions will shape the opposition’s ability to mount a unified challenge to Tinubu’s re-election bid. With less than two years until the election, time is running out for the fractured opposition to regroup and present coherent alternatives to voters weary of economic hardship and security challenges.
For now, the opposition remains in disarray, with democracy advocates expressing alarm that the systems designed to guarantee fair competition are being deployed in ways that advantage the incumbent.
Whether Nigeria can preserve meaningful multi-party competition ahead of 2027 remains an open question.
